--- cover-image: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/GTIF-Austria/public-assets/refs/heads/main/assets/thumbnails/klien_data/Wind%20Power.jpg
domain: Energy Transition tags: KLIEN,renewable energy,energy potential,energy technology,wind power,electricity provider: AIT Center for Energy,Energiewerkstatt
Wind Power Potential – Study on Renewable Energy Potentials
Background
In 2024, a total of 9,288 GWh of electrical energy were fed into the grid in Austria by 1,413 wind power plants (WPPs). Because wind power plants have historically been installed according to the state of technological development at the respective time—resulting in substantial differences in performance—the existing fleet in 2024 comprises, excluding small wind turbines, installations with rated capacities ranging from 500 kW to 6,200 kW. For potential analyses, installed capacity therefore represents a more meaningful indicator than the mere number of installations.
Methodology
The calculation of wind power potentials was carried out in four steps:
- Identification of potential areas: Potential areas for wind power use were identified by means of a GIS-based analysis. This assessment combined criteria such as terrain slope, minimum distances to settlements, minimum distances to transport and energy infrastructure, and protected natural areas.
- Placement of hypothetical wind power plants and yield calculation: In a second step, hypothetical wind power plants were placed within the identified potential areas. Based on local wind data from the wind atlas, the energy yield at each turbine location was calculated using an assumed power curve.
- Economic assessment: Subsequently, an economic feasibility analysis was conducted for each modelled turbine location, incorporating remuneration according to the Austrian Renewable Energy Expansion Act (EAG) as well as current investment and operating costs.
- Allocation of national expansion rates: Finally, nationwide wind power expansion rates—expressed as the number of newly installed wind power plants per year—were modelled and allocated to the individual federal states. The resulting developments were evaluated for the target years 2030 and 2040.
More detailed descriptions of the individual steps are provided in the final report of the underlying study or, with respect to the results, in the following sections.
Results
Potential Areas for Wind Power Development
The potential areas for wind power are distributed very unevenly, particularly when considered relative to the total area of each federal state. Site-specific wind conditions are only incorporated into the potential assessment at the stage of the economic feasibility analysis of individual turbine locations.
Due to the required minimum spacing between wind power plants (WPPs), the spatial structure of the potential areas—whether consisting of large contiguous zones or fragmented into many small patches—has a substantial influence on the subsequent calculation of wind power potentials. In the case of highly fragmented potential areas, the land requirement per WPP is only slightly larger than the foundation footprint.
In contrast, within large contiguous potential areas, each WPP effectively occupies a circular area with a radius of two rotor diameters (half of the assumed minimum inter-turbine spacing of 4D). Consequently, the reported potential areas are not directly proportional to the number of wind power plants, total installed capacity, or annual energy production.
Technical Potential of Wind Power
The technical potential represents the level of wind power utilization that is feasible given the wind resource (i.e. sufficient to enable economically viable operation of a WPP at a given site), technical constraints (e.g. terrain slope), and the assumed minimum distances to settlements and other infrastructure. Constraints related to grid capacity, competing land uses, social acceptance, and demand are not considered.
Repowering areas are included in the technical potential, i.e. areas currently used for wind power that become available again for renewed use after an assumed operational lifetime of 20 years. Over time, currently utilized wind power sites thus gradually re-enter the pool of areas available for wind power deployment. As a result, slightly different technical potentials emerge for the years 2030 and 2040, each consisting of existing turbines that have not yet reached the assumed 20-year lifetime and newly installed turbines, some of which are located on repowering sites.
Realisable Wind Power Potentials in 2030 and 2040
The results for the projected expansion of wind power installed capacity in Austria under the three ranges Low, Medium, and High are illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2. For the period up to 2024, the historical expansion of wind power in Austria is additionally shown. The period from 2013 to 2023 served as the empirical basis for modelling future expansion rates (Low, Medium, High).
Figure 1: Wind power: History and temporal Development of Potentials in installed Capacity, expressed in GW
Austria GTIF - Wind Power Potential
At the upper end of the assumed range (“High”), approximately one third of Austria’s technical wind power potential would be realised nationwide by 2040. This highlights that the technically available wind power potential constitutes a sufficiently large reservoir for any realistic expansion pathway over the foreseeable future. Consequently, there remains substantial scope for political decision-making in determining the regions in which wind power expansion should be implemented.
Levelized Cost of Energy, Market Value & Impact of Climate Change
The evaluation of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), market value (MV), and the impact of climate change was carried out as a post‑processing step following the assessment of generation potentials
The specified LCOE ranges are based on a location-specific assessment that takes into account both construction and operating costs as well as site-dependent yield characteristics. For future cost developments, technology-specific assumptions, international cost trends, and adjusted price and financing parameters were used. Market value is based on prospective model-based analysis as undertaken in the recently completed FFG study Marktprämien 2.0 (cf.
Marktprämien 2.0 - AIT Austrian Institute Of Technology), acknowledging hourly feed-in profiles of wind power generation at the aggregated level in Austria. It thus reflects how revenues from selling the produced wind power electricity on the Austrian wholesale market may evolve.
The data thus combines cost and system perspectives and shows how the relationship between generation costs and potential market revenues may change over time. For renewable electricity technologies, this comparison of electricity generation costs and potentially achievable market revenues provides an initial assessment of how their economic viability could develop under future conditions in the absence of public funding. It thus indicates the need for financial support as currently provided by the Austrian Renewable Expansion Act.
The wind power potential assessment is based on current climatic and meteorological conditions. The impact of climate change was evaluated in a supplementary manner by assessing how moderate (mocc) and strong climate change (stcc) scenarios affect the full load hours of wind power systems, based on NUTS 3 level climate impact indicators derived in the recently completed FFG study ROBINE (cf.
ROBINE Regionsspezifische Impactuntersuchung von Klimawandel für eine robuste und integrale Energieinfrastruktur in Österreich.
About
The underlying study, “Renewable Energy Potentials in Austria for 2030 and 2040,” was conducted on behalf of the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund and was financed with appropriations from the former Federal Ministry for Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology (BMK). It was carried out under the leadership of AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH (AIT), together with the Environment Agency Austria (UBA), Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), AEE – Institute for Sustainable Technologies (AEE INTEC), and Energiewerkstatt.
Energiewerkstatt and AIT act as provider for this service.
EOX complements with its IT expertise, acting as host and front-end expert.
